Trading Plan for 12/23

Auto-pilot: It’s not just for cars! Triggering Wednesday morning’s 1252.00 bias-up signal was only a formality. The trend remained up, so long as the open held above 1250.00. Its 1255.00 target was tested during the noon hour. It was retested into the close after an interim dip to 1252.00.[pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
[Imagine obligatory “low-volume, low-volatility” commentary here.]

The most interesting action during Wednesday’s session was the afternoon’s dip down to 1252.00. This had been the morning’s bias-up signal. Relevant resistance often proves its relevance by being retested as support from the other side. And vice-versa.

Tuesday morning’s 1244.50 bias-up signal is still owed that courtesy. Actually, it wasn’t even touched intraday as resistance. But it should still be touched as support. The gap back down to Monday’s 1242.00 close should be filled, too.

Delaying any retest – let alone so many consecutive pieces of unfinished business below – creates pent-up selling pressure. And vice-versa. But once they start to fall, they fall. Their cumulative delay suggests the market intends to break below them forcefully.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Breaking under 1252.00 would signal the fall is underway coming. It may serve as resistance again, whether from 1244.50 or from 1242.00. But a downleg would target 1239.75, and its break would target 1217.50 and 1201.50.

All of which depends upon sellers returning. Their continued absence wouldn’t necessarily point higher as it did Wednesday. But extending above 1257.75 would target 1267.75, with interim resistance at 1262.75.

Watch for volume (what’s left of it) to evaporate quickly into the noon hour as participants (what’s left of them) leave early. Have a safe and happy holiday (what’s left of it) and a Merry Christmas… -=Rd [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.