Trading Plan for 1/25

Was it all about AAPL? Really?… Tuesday’s recovery from its opening low got hung up on something. AAPL’s post-close earnings were too specific. A post-close surge in reaction to AAPL’s earnings suggests otherwise. Is the market really so focused on single-stock results?

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Price trended down Monday night. Tuesday’s open immediately fulfilled selling pressure at the morning’s 1302.00 bias-down target. And 1305.00‘s recovery never looked back. Its recovery never really looked up, either.

The 1309.75 resistance held two tests, but positive territory was never recovered. Not intraday. The session was ineffectual pessimism: opening gap down, probe prior lows trade exclusively in negative territory — without trending down. Ineffectual pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

APPL’s post-close earnings triggered a spike up that probed Monday afternoon’s high up to 1316.50. The morning’s pattern made such higher highs possible for the afternoon, but they never came. The session’s pattern made such higher highs possible for Wednesday, but they have already come.

1316.50 was Monday morning’s bias-up target, and it already held once. Recovering it or not through Wednesday’s open would dictate momentum through the morning. Quickly rejecting Tuesday’s post-close surge through Wednesday’s open would point down sharply.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Wednesday’s FOMC unusually-timed news and its later press conference are still relatively new influences, so price action should be interesting throughout the day. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.