Trading Plan for 1/29

If sellers retaking control requires a new relative low close… then buyers should be getting concerned about intraday dips surrounded by higher and higher new highs. They have brought the prior high much closer to current levels.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday was the best effort yet to reverse the trend down. The rally’s momentum has already slowed, and intraday efforts to extend have failed. Monday afternoon essentially reinstated the Friday afternoon / Sunday night 1494.00-1498.00 range, ignoring the morning’s 1491.00-1500.00 swing.

And now it is sellers that are using tactics to define context. For example, buyers had failed Friday to make a new high close, which would have entrenched the rally and absorb any pullback. Their failure opened the door for sellers to use their own tactics Monday:

Oversold RSIs at Monday morning’s 1491.25 low require a retest. This printed on the way to attacking the 1490.50 objective, which has now become “unfinished business below.”
[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
There was no complexity to the  pre-open test of 1500.00 that might require its retest intraday. But it’s still likely to be retested, and probably also 1503.00. Reacting down after neutralizing one or both objectives could produce a sizable drop — and should, if the high has in fact been met.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.