Trading Plan for 2/13

If Tuesday’s close was no less of a breakout than Friday’s… then does that assure the rally extending higher still? No, because it was no more of a breakout, either. Neither one was optimal, but neither one is a sell signal. One difference, though — expiration is almost just hours away.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Tuesday afternoon’s 1520.25 bias-up target was left outstanding. It was attacked up to 1519.00, itself a relevant level that was likely to be visited upon retesting 1517.00. But the reaction down held above prior highs and prior lows through almost all remaining relevant timing windows.

The final hour fluctuated between the morning’s ~1516.00 highs as support and the bias environment’s 1516.50 low as resistance. The non-committal selling pressure isn’t anything new for the recent ranging. The fluctuation’s touch of 1515.00 reacted up to 1517.00 while RSI seemed not to notice.

1515.00 was the prior intraday high, and Tuesday’s last half-hour dipped to touch it. That undermines the close above it, which was only 1 point anyway. Similar behavior Friday has since restrained the rally — it didn’t end the rally, but it prevented any breakout-type price action. Similarly, the rally may yet extend, perhaps to its next higher objective at 1533.00, but only by default since sellers haven’t exploited the sluggish gains.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
The Wednesday Expiration Indicator now comes into play. Closing positive would be a bullish bias. Regardless, possibly the last opportunity for a bearish bias would be to close Wednesday under 1510.00.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.