Trading Plan for 2/14

Another day, another resolution… the Greek debt crisis. The question is whether good news can be released while testing prior highs, or if that is reserved for tests of support.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday’s gap up to 1348.50 was still being tested at Monday’s close(s). And that was after probing the open’s 1350.00 high. Buyers gained no traction for their effort.

The recovery from intraday lows could have left pent-up buying pressure outstanding by not yet touching the session’s prior highs. Or, the recovery could have left the open’s gap outstanding by not probing a fresh high. Instead, Monday’s buyers were fulfilled.

When buyers gain no traction one day, then extending higher the next day would require gapping up. A probe above prior highs would not be assured of extending higher. And it would not be immune to reversing down sharply, not until the 10:15 bias timing window had closed.

The gap back to Friday’s close does not require being filled. No part of Friday’s range requires being tested.But it would be unusual not to, since Monday’s rejection of Friday’s range quickly peaked.That said, any test of Friday’s range can be delayed indefinitely if not being tested already by a dip Tuesday morning, or if fresh highs aren’t rejected Tuesday afternoon.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Tuesday’s resolution is so pivotal because Wednesday’s close will be set-up two indicators: the Expiration Indicator and the 3-day Weekend indicator. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.