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Trading Plan for 2/16 – If, Then… Market Timing

Trading Plan for 2/16

[pay]At the close (How the prior session ended)
The holiday’s Globex session was choppy, but still contained within a narrow range. No critical level was tested, other than a dip that probed Friday’s 1074.75 equivalent cash session close. The range only narrowed overnight, until a 2:00am lift-off from 1078.00 up to 1086.50.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
The overnight surge is probing Feb 4’s 1085.00 gap open. Unless the recovery fails to hold 1083.00 through the open, this puts into play 1093.00-1095.00.

Momentum doesn’t reverse down so long as 1075.00 holds as support. The overnight high’s retest is likely in any case, unless it were all ignored by opening essentially unchanged from Friday’s 1079.00 close.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
The default du jour – or “ti̱s i̱méras” which is the more fitting Greek translation – couldn’t have a higher profile. Rather than sell-off until resolution is at hand, the market is rallying in expectation of the crisis being resolved. You don’t need a liberal arts education to recognize how this classic tragedy ends. Meanwhile, there appears to be one more adventure ahead.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.