Trading Plan for 2/17

If not for this being a three-day weekend… then would a hold-long have been considered.? No. Not even a day other than Friday. The upside target was being tested when the cash session close was within 3 minutes. Exceeding it came later. If anything, a hold-short would have been interesting — in fact, the close”s extension up has been retraced already. But this IS the weekend, and Friday”s issues can be forgotten between Mimosas during Sunday brunch.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Friday Factors were everywhere. The morning”s bias persisted through the noon hour. Counter-trend sponsorship wasn”t durable. Afternoon trending drifted into the close. Those are the ones we discussed in the morning since they could influence intraday action.

Another one now has influence. Trends don”t end with a new extreme close on Fridays. And Friday was a new high close. So, even if the new week begins by immediately trending down — like, reacting to news — and even if the reversal were to persist for multiple sessions, a complete recovery would be expected.

Given that Monday is a holiday, reversing down would be interesting. Monday is the next Eurogroup meeting, and I”m not sure expectations can be downplayed any further. But this is the area of December”s highs, which also pushed back. And oversold RSIs at Friday”s 2082.75 low do require a retest at some point.

The template for a relentless recovery to new highs continues tracking. Friday could have probed sharply higher and been rejected by the close. That didn”t happen, so continually aggressive rallying remains likely — and likely to be rejected aggressively soon thereafter.

What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
With no Saturday Review this weekend due to the holiday, extra time was taken during Friday”s post-close Market Wrap to review the bigger picture. Check the Activity Feed for its link soon. Have a great weekend,  Happy Valentine”s Day, and Happy President”s Day!