Trading Plan for 2/20

If Friday”s open were to dip… then it would be the fourth consecutive such open. Therefore, it would be unlikely to recover immediately like the prior three opening dips. Also there being three consecutive opening dips, Friday”s open isn”t likely to dip.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Thursday afternoon”s 2095.50 bias-down signal was probed during the noon hour, but a 4-point plunge, which ended within 3 minutes, and wasn”t probed any deeper. But it wasn”t recovered in time to avoid triggering at the bias environment”s entry. And it wasn”t recovered in time to be invalidated at the bias environment”s exit.

So, the bias-down wasn”t invalidated, and it”s target wasn”t met. But exiting the bias environment back AT 2095.50 does undermine the signal. Perhaps the 4-point plunge just knocked the wind out of the rally. Perhaps it was otherwise irrelevant expiration position-jockeying. I”m going to ignore it.

Three consecutive opening dips have been absorbed, and the last two barely pierced positive territory. That is not excessive optimism. Tuesday afternoon”s 2101.50 bias-up target remains outstanding as “unfinished business above.”

A downdraft is possible, but it would be unlikely to extend without first recovering to probe fresh highs. Meanwhile, fresh highs remain likely.

What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Friday”s expiration has several unique nuances. One is that trending through the opening 15 minutes is likely to trend in that direction through the day. Friday Factors will also apply, like the morning”s bias signal tending to persist through the noon hour.