Trading Plan for 2/24

If a WedEX influences Friday afternoon… then it is extremely likely to influence Monday morning, too. The bearish WedEX produced a fresh session low that probed back under the prior afternoon’s lows.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Friday’s session was never required to probe above Wednesday’s 1844.50 prior high, let alone even to attack the rally’s outstanding 1856.50 objective. One or both was possible on Friday, mostly because they remain likely at some point. And the bearish WedEX just further delays those upside objectives.

But trending up Friday morning, probing too much higher, would have required behaviors and unleashed new influences contradicting the bearish WedEX. The delay need not be too long, “lower prior highs” at 1829.00-1830.50 could be neutralized before Monday’s noon hour, with room down to 1824.50.

Extending higher instead Monday morning would be credible for probing the highs that Friday morning could not. Not gapping up considerably would more likely stretch the rubber band down before snapping back up into a rally. How considerably? Gapping up only 5 points to 1839.00 or 8 points to 1842.00 would still be likelier to spend the morning dropping back to Friday’s late 1832.75 low — which would fulfill the bearish WedEX influence.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
REMINDER: There is no Saturday Strategy Session this weekend. We’ll cover the bigger picture mid-morning Monday — I’ll send out an alert announcing the specific time.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.