Trading Plan for 2/25

If another session were to mimic Tuesday”s… then a new downleg could be obvious within hours of that. Probing new highs without gaining traction isn”t the problem — except for sessions that develop almost exclusively above all prior sessions” highs.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Although Tuesday morning”s bias-up wasn”t triggered, its 2114.00 target was pierced by 1 tick. So was its potential for being probed up to 2115.25 at the afternoon”s peak.

Buyers gained no traction for the effort, since the bias environment was exited within noon hour”s range. That”s not necessarily bearish — the final hour”s entry was above both and the 3:10-3:20 timing window trended through the morning”s prior high, so sellers were prevented from gaining traction. 

The rally stumbled at  the close, too. Despite probing a fresh session high, the morning”s high was still being overlapped. So, not already trending down at Wednesday”s open could spend the morning probing fresh highs.

Overbought RSIs at the 2115.75 high will require a retest, despite the late 3-1/2 point reaction down. Neutralizing the retest overnight is the only credible path down Wednesday morning. Otherwise, trading down first, or not already reacting down from 2115.75, could marginalize sellers into the afternoon.

What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities) Very little of Tuesday”s session probed back into a prior session”s range. The morning”s bias timing window was spent under prior highs, but a break higher rejected it during the first hour. The noon hour”s momentary dip was recovered to fresh highs. And, yet, the rally gained no traction for the efforts. This observation tends to appear before substantial reversals, even if the reversal proves only temporary.