Trading Plan for 2/9

It’s a breakout… but not much of one if Thursday doesn’t confirm. And there are reasons to suspect that won’t happen.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Wednesday’s close above the rally’s 1343.00 target put into play 1371.00. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm.

There were some things left to be desired in Wednesday’s close. But a buy signal was still active from 1342.00. The afternoon’s 1348.00 bias-up target was not yet met, and the 1348.25 overnight “new Globex trend extreme” had not been retested.

Another bullish factor was the last 60-90 minutes developing entirely above the afternoon’s bias environment. That is mitigated somewhat by only ranging narrowly instead of trending, but the timing window was higher throughout nonetheless.

For now, it’s a breakout — on probation, until a second consecutive higher close Thursday confirms 1371.00 is in-play. Intraday resistance at 1349.00 and 1351.25, if tested, could still push back for a close under 1343.00.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Meanwhile, headlines from Greece after the close have triggered a drop to 1343.00. It doesn’t mean much unless extended through Thursday’s open. And back above 1345.50 would suggest the near-term threat had passed. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.