Trading Plan for 3/1

Wednesday’s close narrowly avoided… a clean “hold-short” through the close signal under 1364.50. That didn’t stop a post-close plunge to 1356.75. An aberration? Not entirely. Price was ranging 1360.00-1362.00 and hour later.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Regardless of triggering a “hold-short” through the close, Wednesday’s sellers did gain traction. And they left no unfinished business above. The close was back under the two prior high closes (Monday and Tuesday) and at the third prior high close (Friday).

Despite also closing under Tuesday’s prior low, there is a problem with calling Wednesday a trend change — the same session contains the trend high. Almost any delay in breaking lower Thursday could trigger another bounce to 1368.00.

Meanwhile, the next lower objective is to test last Thursday’s 1350.25 “actual low.” Its retest was created by Monday’s dip back to last Wednesday’s 1353.00 “actual low.” Above 1369.00 would start to suggest another rally leg underway.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
AAPL stayed above the fray while the broader market tumbled. This is a phenomenon I mention occasionally, when only one or two stock stories are available to attract cash. This tends to be undone almost immediately, regardless of whether the broader market decline were to end. Couple this with the significant resistance being tested all day Wednesday. Almost any potential for AAPL to extend higher depends upon extending sharply higher without delay. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.