Trading Plan for 3/11

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
Wednesday’s close was still testing Tuesday’s 1145.25 high. The two prior sessions had probed the two prior sessions’ highs, and each had held as resistance. Still testing the prior session’s high isn’t much different – in neither case did buyers gain traction.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
That wasn’t even the session high. It was an attack on the afternoon’s high, which was itself an attack on the morning’s high. The afternoon’s high could have extended higher instead of diving 6 points. So, an opportunity to rally was ignored.

No new trending before the close left the third possible scenario for this stage of the pattern. Its bearish resolution called for ranging sideways into the close. It’s not a sell signal, and it doesn’t prevent a buy signal from appearing. But it does clear the way for selling to gain traction if a decline were attempted.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Gapping down at Thursday’s open to Wednesday’s lows would leave no unfinished business above in this pattern. But I’ll be watching overnight in case of a failed probe of Wednesday’s highs that’s already in decline before the morning’s news. There’s a steady flow of news, very little of it high-profile after the pre-open Jobless Claims… The front-month rolls to Jun at Thursday’s open. Its pricing is 4-1/2 points under Mar.  [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.