Trading Plan for 3/14

If Wednesday had at least probed prior highs… then some signal could have triggered to predict expiration’s bias. Thursday’s opening action might suffice.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Wednesday morning’s Euro sympathy plunge was retraced entirely by Wednesday afternoon. The cash session close was 1 tick above the plunge’s 1548.25 origin, so buyers did the least possible to gain traction. And they left more “unfinished business above.” The same 1553.50 bias-up target as Monday had left outstanding.

Despite their repeated efforts, sellers still behave like the same weak hands as Tuesday. Touching the 1551.00 prior high again reversed back down without first probing above it. The plunge’s test of 1543.00 support held through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The 1541.50 downside objective was met to within 3 ticks. At least a probe of fresh highs is almost obligatory at this point.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
The WedEx indicator did not trigger since no prior high or low was even tested intraday. Immediately probing fresh highs Thursday could serve by proxy, and that probe’s resolution would be the late signal. Regardless, Tuesday and Wednesday’s volatility within the range — not probing a prior high or prior low — suggests that expiration will be volatile, too. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.