Trading Plan for 3/16

Thursday’s rejection of Wednesday’s close… may yet be rejected, too. If not, then Wednesday’s Expiration Indicator may become moot.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Thursday’s bounce was not retraced by the close. And the close was a new high. If this seems damning to Wednesday’s Expiration Indicator, it should.

The open’s immediate recovery back above 1389.00 — although not clear — had already threatened to undermine the indicator. Simply retracing the intraday bounce and closing only slightly negative would have validated the indicator’s bearishness.

But not only did Thursday’s session rally, and not only did the rally hold, but it produced a new high close.

The new high close was under the noon hour’s high. The entire afternoon essentially ranged sideways. And Thursday afternoon’s fresh high was not attempted until becoming too late to assure a breakout. These reasons leave the door open to reversing down into and out of the weekend, Friday afternoon and Monday morning. And that’s the indicator’s window, anyway.

But that argument would become even thinner if Friday’s open or the afternoon aren’t entered under a prior low.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. If sellers aren’t in control early, they might not retake control at all — not unless the morning only trades flat to lower.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.