Trading Plan for 3/18

Yippee! An inside day, with no net post-open gain! Hooray! Thursday’s 1270.50 open was probed just before the close, and it held as resistance. Thursday’s entire ~1266.00-1271.00 opening range contained almost all of the last 90 minutes price action. Despite gapping up and trading entirely in positive territory, Thursday’s session was “ineffectual optimism.”[pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Buyers gained no traction Thursday for their efforts. Higher highs all but require gapping up. Not gapping up would mean no higher highs.

Sellers didn’t gain traction, either. Gapping down under Thursday’s 1261.50 low would trend down, although not necessarily session-long. Any lesser opening weakness would likely recover to trade out the week inside Thursday’s 1261.50-1274.50 range.

Unfinished business below now includes Wednesday night’s 1241.25 “new Globex trend extreme,” whose intraday retest is almost historically required. Oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 1257.75 pre-open low don’t require a retest, but there’s an attraction. Intraday oversold RSIs at Thursday afternoon’s 1261.50 low do require a retest.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
All of which can be delayed by resuming the rally that was being attempted Wednesday morning, before it was blind-sided by a 20-point plunge. Gapping up Friday would suggest the detour was underway, targeting 1286.00. The pattern’s outcome doesn’t require rallying, but not rallying would be extra vulnerable to trending down through either the morning, or through the afternoon. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.