Trading Plan for 3/18

If Monday’s open was a relief rally… then that was some relief. But that was all the relief there was, since the open’s peak didn’t improve intraday. This market isn’t out of the woods. Actually, perhaps all it did Monday was to climb further up a tree, with a bear close behind.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday’s session-long rally bucked several trends. From triggering at all on a Monday, to not probing a fresh high in the final hour. But it did marginalize sellers, who never retook control, and not for lack of trying. Anyway, extending throughout the day tends to extend the following day. Monday didn’t extend, so Tuesday might not either.

Monday’s buyers gained no traction — the final hour wasn’t entered above the bias environment high, which wasn’t exited above the noon hour’s high. Extending the rally without a pullback must begin by gapping up. Any other probe above Monday’s highs would be doomed to failure before the close.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Overbought RSIs at Monday’s 1855.75 high require its retest. That need not be neutralized in any specific time frame. Its attraction could rescue a morning dip, and facilitate a durable probe above Monday’s highs.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.