Trading Plan for 3/19

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
All of Thursday morning’s relevant timing windows were attracted back to unchanged levels around 1161.25. Both the noon hour and afternoon’s bias window were spent below it. But 1161.25 was retested as resistance when the afternoon’s bias environment began lapsing after 2:30. It held that test, and then another during the last half-hour lasting into the close.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Thursday’s pattern consisted of a late dip into the noon hour, which was retraced into the afternoon. Both the morning and the last hour ranged narrowly. That’s quite a contrast from Wednesday’s gap up extension of Tuesday’s rally, and its wide intraday round-trip. The previous price action had suggested that Friday’s “quadruple witch” expiration could be volatile and/or trending.

Credible trending Friday would be underway at the open or within minutes. Trending on an expiration day is unlikely to wait beyond the first half-hour before beginning. A valid trending attempt on an expiration day would be likely to trend into the last hour, and out of Monday’s open.

There’s a requirement to probe at least several points into Tuesday’s range. So, it was excessively optimistic for Wednesday’s lows to narrowly avoid even touching 1155.00 Tuesday’s high. This reflects optimism, and the unfinished business below keeps alive the potential for a decline. But if that decline isn’t underway at the open, then expiration’s influences could magnify the optimism for a retest of Wednesday’s 1165.00 highs.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
No matter how much less likely Friday trending has become due to Thursday’s inaction, trending is still possible. And it would be difficult to stop. Expirations can give false signals within the range, but not beyond the range. The narrowest definition of the range is 1158.00-1162.50, and a probe of either would be assessed for its trending potential.  [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.