Trading Plan for 3/19

Good things come in little packages?…Expiration’s 6-point range did not reject Thursday’s new high, and even probed more new highs. If the first break from an extended narrowing range is false, then a shallow dip could be bullish, too.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Friday afternoon’s narrow ranging was only slightly narrower than the morning. Despite probing new highs above 1400.00, multiple intraday lows overlapped Thursday’s highs. Normally, those are potentially bearish elements, reflecting a lack of sponsorship. On Friday, it was probably just expiration.

Trend extremes rarely form during expiration. A productive pullback could still  appear, but probably only temporarily. And probably only if selling were aggressive — this pattern is unlikely to gently roll over and decline.

Wednesday’s Expiration Indicator did not close clearly under resistance, and that resistance was recovered at Thursday’s open. If it had any bearish influence Friday afternoon, it was in preventing the rally from extending higher. But Monday’s open should be immediately weaker if the indicator will have any effect.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
SPECIAL NOTE: I will post to the blog early Monday, but will then be unavailable through most of the morning.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.