Trading Plan for 3/19

If Yellen wants goose Wednesday’s market… then she’ll announce that Rubles are replacing Dollars. Placating Putin seems to be more effective than QE, or at least a good tapering offset. And they’re both doves, apparently, They don’t see entirely eye-to-eye — one is consolidating…

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Two consecutive overnight rallies have trended into the open. Despite holding those gains, neither extended any higher past the open, and the afternoon’s buyers gained no traction for their efforts.

This sequence can repeat indefinitely, but that’s unlikely. When the music of this pattern does stop, the market usually seems surprised to find how high it has traveled. And it suddenly remembers it is afraid of heights.

Unlike Monday, Tuesday left no unfinished business outstanding above. And it left a gap to the prior session’s close outstanding below. Anxiousness ahead of Wedenesday afternoon’s FOMC news is likely to paralyze price action before the announcement. Then Yellen’s first-ever quarterly Q&A will keep things active into the close.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
WedEX has an opportunity to trigger at Wednesday’s close. The session is likely to be choppy, which might make Thursday’s open the final arbiter. But trending only overnight is probably a thing of the past. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.