Trading Plan for 3/2

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
The new month got off to a fast start. The morning was pretty quick to stop it. The morning’s 1113.25 bias-up target held its test through 10:15 to rob buyers of their traction. That didn’t prevent buyers from regaining traction at the next timing window. And yet, they didn’t.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Despite dipping to 1108.75, the balance of the session barely pierced 1114.50. And despite a series of higher lows, 1113.25 was in there, somewhere, throughout. The template of a narrowly ranging Monday afternoon tends to precede a narrowly ranging Tuesday morning. Early attempts to trend away from the range are likely to return back into it.

Monday’s repeated probes of resistance all failed to extend higher. The optimism isn’t ineffectual, because it probed fresh highs and closed above prior highs. Its effort isn’t likely to end without first probing higher highs. And a probe of higher highs is vulnerable to gaining traction for attacking January’s highs.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
An immediate dip would likely present a buying opportunity. Gapping down under Monday afternoon’s 1111.00 low would gain traction for a bigger dip first. Gapping down under Friday’s 1106.00 highs would turn Monday’s buying into distribution, taking fresh highs off the table, and probably trigger a new downleg.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.