Trading Plan for 3/21

If the rally has resumed… then it should be obvious immediately Thursday. Unfortunately, a false break higher would like very similar, initially. The more alluring the attempt in this pattern, the likelier that it is false.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Wednesday’s last half-hour produce a 4-point surge that probed the bias environment’s 1555.50 high. But only momentarily. Its reaction down under 1552.75 put into play fresh session lows, which was fulfilled down to 1448.00. But only after the cash session close.

The timing of fulfilling the target doesn’t matter, not like the timing of triggering a signal, which does matter. So, waiting until after the cash session close to fulfill the target still fulfills the target. But waiting to break under the session’s low doesn’t put into play lower lows.

The setup did have potential, if not a likelihood, of also testing 1546.50, which is still possible. If test it would likely be recovered before Thursday’s open. Wednesday’s late drop is also likely to be recovered before Thursday’s open. That is, if the rally intends to extend and retest last week’s 1558.75 high.

If Thursday’s open isn’t already rejecting Wednesday’s late dip, then under 1545.25 would signal a retracement of Tuesday night’s rally underway, if not a resumption of the decline.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
The trend change that barely triggered Monday, and which was only dubiously confirmed Tuesday, was clearly invalidated Wednesday. Obviously, that wasn’t being taken seriously anyway, so it doesn’t affect anything. But another trend change signal should develop within 2-3 days, unless a bigger rally is underway.  [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.