Trading Plan for 3/24

If the highs are ever attacked without reversing down sharply… then that would be a first for this area. It might be an important “last,” too.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Now we know why WedEX wasn’t a decisive signal — because expiration wasn’t decisive. Actually, the morning’s buyers were pretty decisive, and extended overnight trending through the 1873.75 bias-up target.  They didn’t maintain its probe in time to renew the bias-up. And that only made sellers more intent upon reversing the rally. Which they did, well into negative territory at 1855.50 — decisively.

It’s interesting that the downleg didn’t wait until Monday. The two-week old 1871.00 prior high close was probed decisively, and thoroughly. In other words, it wasn’t barely touched for a few moments. Since a new high close on a Friday helps to preserve a rally’s trend, not exploiting the opportunity can be bearish.

Meanwhile, being in proximity of the two-week old 1880.00 pre-open high once again resulted in reversing sharply from positive territory into negative. Friday was the third such session — fourth, if counting the high’s reaction, itself. This is distribution. A big dip has been retraced, so distribution clearly doesn’t equate to a trend change. And it wouldn’t prevent probing fresh highs. But it’s not bullish.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Join us for the Saturday Strategy Session where we’ll discuss the bigger picture more broadly and precisely, with likely scenarios for next week’s open. We’ll also leave plenty of time for instant analysis of charts on-demand from subscribers.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.