Trading Plan for 3/25

If recent highs are going to be probed… then Friday’s rally left the market positioned to easily get it done. Since buyers didn’t gain much traction for all of their effort Friday, resistance is that much more difficult to overcome, and easier to push back.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
If there were going to be a short-squeeze, it is is likely to happen during the position-squaring window between 3:37-3:52. Friday’s last-minute surge originated after 3:57 at 1548.00 and ended 6 points higher at 1552.00. To the degree that it was a product of big money, it was big money position-squaring. But it was not the work of “strong hands.”

Not that sellers are strong hands. They missed every opportunity to regain control — holding above prior lows, firming as timing windows ended instead of deteriorating. While buyers held up, they also held back until the last-minute surge. Until then, the noon hour and bias environment highs were holding.

There continues to be only one reason to give sellers any benefit of the doubt, and it’s a big reason. Last week’s low close came Thursday, after two big intraday rallies. But that might be enough only to ensure that a probe above the 1558.75 prior high will fail, and not enough to prevent the higher high.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Friday’s late surge originated too late to be predictive. But it does set the stage for Monday’s open, if not also for Sunday night. Immediately rejecting the surge back to and through its 1548.00 origin would be likely to extend down and do everything that Friday’s sellers did not. But extending higher would suggest that fresh higher were in-play. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.