Trading Plan for 3/28

If Thursday’s open isn’t already trending sharply higher… then it’s going to be difficult extending any higher into or out of the weekend. That would also make it difficult to defend against trending down.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Wednesday’s gap down filled the gap back to Monday’s close, and held it through the open. Confirmed by also holding the 1547.25 bias-down target through 10:15, that was good enough to marginalize sellers for the morning. The afternoon extended higher, essentially by default, since sellers didn’t retake control.

But, now, buyers may have trapped themselves. Extending higher Wednesday afternoon filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Similar to the morning’s test of Monday’s gap below, now any attraction to Tuesday’s gap above has been neutralized. Its attraction above might be sorely missed Thursday  — especially if an opening dip were trying to hold an early test of 1550.50-1551.25 support.

An initial dip Thursday to only 1553.25 could still recover, even if only to temporarily probe fresh highs up to 1562.50 or 1565.00. Actually, recovering an opening dip to probe fresh highs IS likely still likely hold, and then to reverse down.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Meanwhile, the 3-Day Weekend indicator wasn’t even passively bearish. Perhaps it was doubly passively bearish, since the only prior high to be tested and rejected happened overnight or pre-open. So long as Thursday’s opening 15 minutes of volatility doesn’t extend above 1560.50, subsequent probes of fresh highs are likely to fail.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.