Trading Plan for 3/28

If Thursday’s decline wanted to be substantial… then why wasn’t it? Does not extending under the open’s lows make the drop bullish? Not necessarily. Certainly, everyone knows it wouldn’t take much Friday to push price off the precipice, with two days of illiquidity and 100,000 troops approaching. But it’s not about not extending down. Rather, the attempt to extend down was absorbed, but that wasn’t extended up. The burden of proof is on buyers.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Buyers gained no traction for their efforts Thursday. No entry into the final hour above the bias environment’s high, both of which were under the noon hour’s high. Gapping up Friday is the only credible path higher that doesn’t first probe new lows, or that isn’t rejected substantially before the close.

No unfinished business was left unfinished below. So, probing lower lows must be recovered before a relevant timing window to avoid gaining traction.

Only gapping up to Thursday morning’s highs, and not through them, would still be vulnerable to resuming the decline intraday. Gapping down to or through Thursday’s lows would likely to extend down — and the potential for recovery would diminish the longer that it was delayed.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
This being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. Whether up, or down, initially gapping beyond any relevant support or resistance would have the weekend’s impending illiquidity to motivate extending in that direction.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.