Trading Plan for 3/5

Can you make it this weekend… to the Saturday Strategy Session? Its link is in the blog’s sidebar (it’s not in the usual daily chartroom), and begins at 9:30am ET. We’ll review the broader market, lessons from the week’s various setups, and then take your requests for an instant chart analysis.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Friday morning repetitively teased the 1369.00 bias-down signal. Its eventual break was likely to aggressive. It did trend down relentlessly to 1364.00, but that move only equated to the earlier 4-point bounce off of 1369.00 to 1373.00.

1369.00‘s break at the open would have trended down sharply through the morning, and into the close. Although buyers fought hard to avoid that, they did not exploit their success, since 1369.00 was not recovered at the close. It was still being tested — but by then the burden of proof was on buyers to recover above 1369.00 decisively, which they failed.

Wednesday’s reaction down from fresh highs to close under prior lows wasn’t likely to extend down. Two subsequent consecutive sessions contained within Wednesday’s range have now absorbed Wednesday’s shock to the system.

Wednesday’s reversal attempt is now free to resume, and also vulnerable to being invalidated. Gapping open in either case is likely. Unless yet another “final” resolution to the Greek deal is announced. Regardless, closing Monday beyond either end of Wednesday’s 1362.00-1377.00 intraday range would be likely to extend in that direction.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
A resolution down remains likelier than up. Not so much because Friday’s buyers failed to exploit their morning success. More so because the gap back to Wednesday’s 1364.00 close should still attract price down, and because the week’s 1353.00 low made the 1350.25 prior low’s test likely. And no unfinished business above remains outstanding. Breaking to new highs in spite of these lower attractions would have to be respected.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.