Trading Plan for 3/5

If Putin invades Poland… then this market could double!. That might seem to be the lesson of each new high overcoming every temporary reaction down to a development in the Ukraine invasion. Those knee-jerk reactions aren’t the story, they’re distracting from it. An understandable defensive dip against the unknown soon finds the development is otherwise irrelevant, and price recovers. But that’s all specific to the Ukraine invasion. This market can’t absorb another possible negative influence.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
The next higher objective above 1856.50 was 1869.00. It was refined to 1870.00 and tested Tuesday morning. It was much more influential than the relatively shallow 3-point reaction down. Its attraction prevented the noon hour’s attack on 1872.00 from extending higher, and also encouraged the bias environment’s reaction down to recover from attacking 1866.00.

That last recovery extended up to within 3 ticks of the afternoon’s 1875.50 bias-up target. It was put into play by a late bias-up signal that didn’t require being fulfilled. The reaction down into the close fell to… 1870.00.

This follows the final hour’s entry that was still overlapping the noon hour and bias environment’s ~1872.00 highs. It also follows the 10:15 bias timing window overlapping Friday’s 1866.50 high. Buyers are losing momentum. Reacting down under a prior low would have meant sellers were gaining traction.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Until then, fresh highs can be probed, and fresh highs remain vulnerable to resolving down. Friday afternoon’s 1875.50 bias-up target probably isn’t a viable peak, but reversing back under it through a relevant timing window would still be bearish. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.