Trading Plan for 3/9

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
A session’s last half-hour is a product of, or a reaction to, price action that precedes it. The price action that preceded Monday’s last half-hour wasn’t much to speak of. Having squandered the session’s earlier trending opportunities, there was no requirement to trend at all. And none was made.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Monday’s cash session only repeated half of the overnight action, its probe of Friday’s 1138.75 last relative high. In fact, the cash session repeated this action twice, both in the morning and in the afternoon. Monday’s 1135.50 last relative low was only attacked within 2 ticks.

Probing the prior session’s highs and avoiding the lows is optimism. So is gapping up, and spending the entire session in positive territory. But not closing above the prior session’s highs is ineffectual. “Ineffectual optimism” identifies buyers making an effort, only to trap themselves. This usually resolves with the trapped buyers, scrambling to un-trap themselves, fueling a move in the opposite direction.

There is no unfinished business above the market. Friday’s high peaked at its target, which held probes by Monday’s highs. A test of Monday’s ~1140.00 highs would be likely to hold again, and now also likely to react down sharply. Sellers would be marginalized if not rejected through the first 30-45 minutes. There’s a relatively thick band of support at 1133.50-1135.50, and breaking under it through any relevant timing window would point down sharply.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
In the absence of any econ reports, Monday’s session failed to rally. Tuesday’s calendar is like Monday, but with a couple of reports, which is to say that those reports aren’t very influential. Wednesday, too. Tuesday will be greeted by no news, no higher targets, and no momentum from the prior day. Except for a gap up that extends higher through the open, most other scenarios point flat to lower. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.