Trading Plan for 3/9

The market got what it asked for… in its overnight surge. Greece’s late news Thursday drove the market to test its target within 1 tick. The final tally is yet to come, along with the Employment Situation report…

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
The late surge stopped within 1 tick of the afternoon’s 1362.75 bias-up target. This was actually representative of a cluster of targets within a 3-tick range, so I don’t consider the target to be outstanding.

Nevertheless, 1362.75‘s retest is likely since its RSIs were overbought. The overbought RSIs were lower than their prior highs, but still overbought, requiring a retest.

Overnight action could fulfill the 1362.75 retest. Having reacted down to 1358.75, recovering 1360.00 suggested the retest is already underway. And it could be probed by 1 point or more.

Still, “hold long” through the close was not considered. Regardless of the likelihood for retesting 1362.75 overnight by whatever margin, there is also potential for its test to reverse down before the open. Whenever 1362.75 is retested — if at all — its test should either react down hard, or else extend the rally sharply higher into the weekend.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
1362.75‘s retest remains likely so long as Thursday’s last relative low at 1357.50 were to hold as support. Extending under 1355.25 would simply point down. But if the rally were to extend higher, it could enter the weekend testing new highs above 1370.00.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.