Trading Plan for 4/11

Well, that was interesting… The morning’s steep slide went on to probe fresh lows during the afternoon’s bias environment. Without any interim correction, i.e. refueling. This is not the stuff of a bottom

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
The only bullish scenario is temporary. After fulfilling the afternoon’s 1353.00 bias-down target, there was no durable reaction up. Two false breaks above 1356.25 failed to gain traction before reacting down. More so, the session’s last 60-90 minutes failed to break out from the afternoon bias environment’s range. The consolidation may be basing.

That’s the bullish scenario. And then, only temporary. Whether peaking quickly at 1366.25-1367.50, or extending up to 1374.00 — assuming that it ever exceeds 1361.00 — new lows are all but required.

Meanwhile, closing Tuesday under 1354.25-1355.00 would have been compelling to consider holding short. In fact, it was probed down to 1353.50 at the cash session close. Futures recovered to almost 1359.00 into the futures close. A corrective bounce would get a benefit of the doubt if Wednesday’s open were to gap up above 1359.00.

Regardless of the size of an overnight bounce, Tuesday’s cash session close makes it vulnerable to reversing entirely into negative territory before Wednesday’s open. Otherwise, gapping up would leave outstanding a gap back to Tuesday’s close, attracting price back down.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Thank you again for your patience with Tuesday’s chartroom issue. A new machine is on-line, and prior data files will be available before the open.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.