Trading Plan for 4/11

If the FOMC Minutes leak were not revealed Wednesday… then would the morning’s rally have been so substantial? Did leaking the FOMC Minutes Tuesday encourage selling that lessened supply and resistance? Confirming Wednesday’s breakout would suggest the majority believes the rally is self-sustaining. Not confirming the breakout would be more realistic.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
One of the most relevant elements of last week’s trend change signal was the repeated probes above 1565.00 being rejected so abruptly. Wednesday’s pre-open knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC Minutes news was a probe under 1565.00. And that’s the last time we heard of that.

The likelihood for probing a fresh high was fulfilled, and then it was extended enough to renew the bias-up signal. While that precluded there being a Wednesday Wreversal into negative territory, the door remained open to a corrective dip. The dip never came.

Pullback limit tests continually held, extending the rally to fresh highs at 1584.25. Only the afternoon bias environment’s exit actually violated a pullback limit, dipping down all of 4 points to 1580.25. Sellers did not gain traction on the close.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Wednesday’s session was a breakout. Like Wednesday, the bearish path would reverse down early from probing fresh highs. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm Wednesday’s breakout. Only gapping down back under 1565.00 Thursday would invalidate the breakout — not very likely, only very damaging.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.