Trading Plan for 4/14

If this is just a correction… then it’s done. It’s probably not just a correction, so it’s probably not done. But if it’s just a correction, then it’s done. But it’s probably not.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Gapping down Friday, and not just down but to the bias-down target, was too early to satisfy selling pressure. But it didn’t attract buyers. There was plenty of opportunity, and a bounce could muster was filling the gap back to Thursday’s close.

The gap fill reacted down to a fresh low. It was productive. So, revisiting Friday’s high during any relevant timing window would suggest the market is intent on bouncing even higher. Retesting Friday’s high overnight could still be rejected without leaving a trace of the visit, or requiring a higher high.

Of greater concern is Friday’s second consecutive lower close, which confirms Thursday’s trend change signal. And the confirmation session trended down, which is optimal. The bigger picture:

— that the Thu-Fri decline is too brief after the prior week’s Fri-Mon decline,
— that two equal length downlegs (60 points) aren’t likely to book-end the decline, and
— that optimistically avoiding 1803.00 has made 1792.25 and 1776.00 much likelier.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
There is no Saturday Strategy Session this weekend. Request any stock analyses on this blog post’s comments section.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.