Trading Plan for 4/15

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
Wednesday’s last hour was entered after spending a half-hour ranging narrowly around the 1204.25 prior high. That had been the prior timing window’s high, so its break would have been very bullish. Instead, the next half hour continued ranging narrowly. Not until Wednesday’s last half-hour did trending resume, touching 1207.25.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
A surge above prior highs delayed until the session’s final half-hour. Sound familiar? It’s emblematic of weak hands. Friday was this setup’s previous instance, and its extension Sunday night immediately peaked.

Excessive optimism is another hallmark of weak hands. They dominated Wednesday’s double-digit gain to new highs. From shallow dips both overnight and post-open, to the mid-day series of carefully controlled higher highs and lows – not to mention rallying into the afternoon’s Beige Book report.

Nevertheless, sellers are probably marginalized until after Monday’s open. Trending through the Wednesday of expiration week tends to do that. Extending above the two-week old Complex Triangle’s 1193.50 target has negated its bearishness, assuming Wednesday’s excess isn’t retraced immediately Thursday. In either case, the rally need not extend higher, but dips should be recovered.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Meanwhile, quarterly earnings news is coming, and the quantity of econ reports is suddenly rising. Either of these is potentially a wild card, let alone combined. And expiration’s influence can be reversed if Wednesday’s gain is retraced.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I will not be available during the last 90 minutes of Thursday’s cash session (2:30 through the close). There will be no closing market tour, and Friday’s Trading Plan will be published Thursday evening. I apologize for any inconvenience this might cause.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.