Trading Plan for 4/16

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
Thursday afternoon’s price action ranged exclusively in positive territory above Wednesday’s 1207.00 high. And it meant nothing, since neither end of the morning’s range was probed. The morning’s gain had also meant nothing, since it was retraced when the bias timing window started lapsing. In spite of their efforts Thursday, buyers gained no traction.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Buyers not gaining traction isn’t that unusual. But price did gain ground, resulting in pent-up selling pressure. Not that it will be relevant before Monday, since Wednesday’s action marginalized sellers for the week. Friday’s version of bearishness might be limited to a probe of Thursday’s highs, or to ranging sideways.

Friday’s version of bearishness might also appear to be normal. For example, overnight action through midnight has trended down. The 1201.25 low has come within 1 point of testing the prior night’s 1201.00 low whose RSIs were oversold. Recovering to open essentially flat from Thursday’s close would then leave no unfinished business below. Friday’s expiration continues to be a wild card in that respect.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Sellers should be marginalized, so the only way they’ll be productive is by gapping. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal is likely to persist through the noon hour. So, it’s not how likely trending is, it’s how likely trending is to persist if it begins – and how unlikely it is to begin if it’s not underway through the open.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.