Trading Plan for 4/16

If the market is at an inflection point… then I must be on a plane. It figures. I will be in the air almost all morning Wednesday. There may be an opportunity to check-in, but otherwise I won’t be posting until noon ET.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
The past two sessions have missed opportunities to extend down through Friday’s lows. Monday afternoon’s opportunity came AFTER the afternoon bias environment had already avoided breaking lower. Tuesday’s early effort came with news attached, which allowed the market to discount its threat and move on.

In fact, the balance of Monday and Tuesday retraced their earlier slides entirely. Is that accumulation, or is it expiration’s influence?

This week’s expiration is Thursday due to Friday being closed. Tuesday is essentially Wednesday, for the purposes of the WedEX indication. Of course, it isn’t that simple. Lacking a full history of one-day early expirations means we can’t rely on a one-day early WedEX. But this one would be bullish.

Oversold RSIs at Monday’s 1808.75 low require a retest. Meanwhile, until expiration’s influence lapses, the near-term potential is to 1853.00. Already, Tuesday’s post-close action has extended up to 1844.00. All of which pretty much relies upon not launching a decline Wednesday morning. The market is currently up in the air on that point. And so am I, literally.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
There is no Market Tour before Wednesday’s open, but the Chartroom will be open. If you’re in there and someone asks, then please let them know. Thank you![/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.