Trading Plan for 4/19

Wednesday’s Expiration Indicator was… a little lacking. But of all the things it wasn’t, it wasn’t bullish — not unless Thursday’s open were to gap up sufficiently… While Wednesday’s Expiration Indicator did not predict much one way or the other — more bearish than bullish, if anything — Wednesday’s intraday volatility does suggest that Friday’s expiration will be extra volatile.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Wednesday’s choppy range held several tests of 1378.50. One of the last was during the no-bias environment, accompanied by 1-minute RSI diverging positively. It produced a bounce back to the morning’s 1385.50 high.

That was only 1 tick short of touching Tuesday’s cash session close. And it was poised to extend higher. The bias environment’s exit exceeded the noon hour’s 1383.00 high, and the session’s last hour was entered above the bias environment’s 1384.00 high. This setup tends to marginalize sellers, especially on an uptrending day.

Which Wednesday was not… The 3:10-3:20 window trended back down under the bias environment’s 1384.00 high. It extended down to almost 1380.00 at the cash session close, and to 1378.00 at the futures close.

Meanwhile, a sell signal triggered on the way back down at 1383.50. Its last productive bounce limit was 1381.75. And having spent Wednesday’s last 5 minutes under 1381.50, a “hold short through the close” was considered.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
There is no bearish reason to revisit 1381.75‘s productive bounce limit — not if the drop intends to retrace much more of Tuesday’s surge (e.g. 1371.00, 1366.00). And not if another attack on 1389.25 will be avoided.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.