Trading Plan for 4/22
If any stocks of interest were affected by the week’s ranging… then be sure to join us for the Saturday Strategy Session. After discussing the market, we’ll have instant analysis of any chart requests. This weekend’s session is open to guests, just have them email me before 9:30am ET for special access instructions.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Friday retested only one relevant piece of unfinished business below that had been neutralized already Thursday. That was the two-week old 1535.25 opening print. It was touched at the low of the pullback into Friday’s open, which also filled the gap back to Thursday’s 1536.75 close.
Both held as support. And that’s when expiration’s intent started becoming obvious — to expend buying pressure without gaining traction for the effort, i.e. “ineffectual optimism.” The evidence continued piling in:
Buying pressure was expended in order to hold that support. And that buying pressure was productive, extending higher. But the nearest that buying pressure came to recovering a relevant level through a relevant timing window was to still be testing the morning’s 1543.00 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. The bias-up signal did not trigger.
Extending higher after the bias environment began lapsing was also productive, touching 1550.00. But, again, that was not extended and the afternoon triggered another no-bias. The balance of the session ranged sideways, expending a lot of buying pressure just to hover. Finally, buying pressure was expended for a late probe of fresh highs up to 1550.75, only to be retraced back under the morning’s high down to 1547.00.
Expiration can be a wild card. The mildly bullish WedEx indicator might have prevented trending down, but so far Wednesday afternoon’s 1548.50-1549.25 resistance continues to hold. Its influence extends through Monday morning. Regardless, expiration seems to be facilitating distribution — expending buying pressure without gaining traction for the effort. If so, then expiration’s end should prove the optimism was ineffectual, and that the optimism had ended.
[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Friday’s hovering essentially ranged between 1543.00-1544.00 and 1548.50-1549.25. In fact, the range’s lower-end only touched 1544.00. Its retest and break Monday morning or Monday afternoon would confirm that buying pressure had been fully expended. Trending higher would all but require extending higher early, and avoiding any corrective dip intraday.[/pay]
Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.