Trading Plan for 4/22

If Monday’s fresh high isn’t rejected without much delay… then the consequences could be new highs. Not directly, but either the recent trend change has been corrected, or it is being invalidated.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday’s bias-up environment offered two lessons. First, bias-up means bias, if not also up. Triggering bias-up, avoiding a grace period, and not being invalidated don’t prevent detouring down to fresh lows. But the bias requires absorbing that detour, and reversing it.

Monday morning’s did just that, and not in a small way. The outcome was recovered to fresh highs.

About that recovery…

Fresh highs were probed, but not broken. The open’s 1864.50 high was pierced by a couple of ticks during the afternoon’s bias environment,  and the bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high. But the final hour was entered no higher.

That stopped the recovery dead as the balance of the session ranged sideways. Closing above 1860.00-1861.00 does create potential for fresh highs, if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Tuesday. Monday morning’s 1867.25 bias-up target is unfinished business above, so its test must be rejected quickly to avoid targeting new highs.

Regardless of the intraday action, closing Tuesday back under 1852.00-1853.00 is the only setup that would signal momentum actually reversing down.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
The recent trend change signal that was triggered by two consecutive closes under support is being threatened. The setup triggered on April 10 and 11. Two consecutive closes above April 10’s 1866.50 high would invalidate the setup. There would be no specific consequence, but presumably new highs would be in-play.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.