Trading Plan for 4/23

If a trend change signal can be rendered moot… then can new highs be avoided? Actually, that’s the consequence, or reward. Unless the trend change invalidation isn’t confirmed.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Last week’s rally from about 1808.00 retraced much of the prior week’s final two-day drop from 1866.75. Tuesday retraced the rest, and then some, up to 1878.75.

That two-day drop had closed under prior lows to trigger a trend change. The signal calls for at least one more lower close, before closing back above the trend change’s origin. The consequence of a failed signal is to retrace the trend change origin’s prior high.

No lower close preceded Tuesday’s fresh highs. The trend change signal is moot. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the signal was invalidated, but the trend change signal wouldn’t be reinstated otherwise. Only closing back under a prior low Wednesday would reinstate the trend change signal. The last prior highs was the highs, so new highs are now in play.

The last relative low was Monday morning at 1856.50, but closing under 1860.00-1861.00 would suffice to reinstate the trend change

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Tuedsay’s price action since exiting the bias environment left the door open to reversing down. Actually, it was more like a transom window. A very small one. The afternoon timing windows did not advance,  and the 1874.00 close was at or under the noon hour’s low. It wasn’t a strong rejection, so extending higher should be very aggressive if valid.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.