Trading Plan for 4/24

If gapping down a little and ranging sideways all day is bearish… then actually trending down must be considered the end of the world. Maybe it would be, to some. Wednesday’s downward biased “inside day” did avoid confirming Tuesday’s trend change invalidation. But it was 7-8 points too high to reinstate the bearish trend change. And while new highs are no longer a required consequence, they’re still likely. Unless…

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
…Unless, a new sell signal were to trigger. Not confirming Tuesday’s rally leaves that door open. This shouldn’t be confused with Wednesday’s opportunity to reinstate the bearish trend change. That’s a much more substantial resolution. But just triggering a sell signal would at least reverse near-term momentum down.

Back to reality…

By that, I mean, while Wednesday’s dip was annoying, it was not predictive. The only traceable purpose it served was to absorb the selling pressure unleashed by Tuesday’s late drop. Not extending any lower past the open suggests what Tuesday’s late drop suggested, that sellers are weak-handed.

Not extending higher Wednesday means that new highs are no longer required. But I would be surprise if they weren’t produced anyway.

=== premature end ===

I had spent the afternoon repeating the above points about sellers still being weak-handed, which firming 4 points to 1873.00 after the close seemed to confirm. Then AAPL beat estimates and announced a 7-1 stock split. The post-close firming became surging to 1879.00 and higher. That’s above Tuesday’s highs.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
The question is whether the post-close surge and indicated gap up will have stolen Wednesday’s pent-up buying pressure. A new high probe is likely. A new high close is not required. Gapping up and trending isn’t impossible, but let’s see where the open is.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.