Trading Plan for 4/25
Early to rise, early to bed… Liquidity and volatility often go hand in hand. At least, that’s how they were seen leaving the building late Thursday morning. A 3-4 tick range contained price action around 1332.75 from 11:30 when the morning’s bias environment started lapsing, until the afternoon’s bias timing window triggered at 1:20. [pay]
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
The range widened after the afternoon’s no-bias was signaled. A 3-point dip to 1331.00 reacted up to 1333.50. A last-minute spike down fell to 1330.50. Regardless, like the noon hour, the afternoon’s price action can be defined as ranging around 1332.75.
While there’s nothing predictive to be inferred from a slow, pre-holiday session, some news was made. The rally’s next higher objective was 1332.00-1333.00. It’s the new 1295.50. Last week’s intraday probes under the decline’s 1295.50 target all held through the close, robbing sellers of their traction. Now 1332.00-1333.00 has held as resistance.
The similarity to last week’s 1295.50 test may end there, even if 1332.00-1333.00‘s test were to reverse the trend back down. Where 1295.50 held a retest as support overnight Monday, 1332.00-1333.00‘s retest is likely to probe higher intraday Monday.
The next higher target is 1339.50. Unless tested and rejected early Monday, its test might bear more similarity to 1295.50‘s test last week. Almost any negative close after probing new highs at this stage of the pattern would point down sharply.
What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
1339.50‘s attraction won’t be “in-play” until closing above 1332.00-1333.00. The decline’s next lower target at 1281.00 was similar, needing to be triggered by a close under 1295.50. But 1339.50 can be tested Monday intraday, and push price back down.
Wednesday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” at 1337.75 already requires a retest intraday. Oversold RSIs at Friday’s 1328.75 low require a retest, too. Their order should determine the next trend’s direction.[/pay]
Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.