Trading Plan for 4/27

That took long enough… The on-again, off-again, rumored, fabled and much anticipated retest of February’s high is finally done. Perhaps not quite finally, but presumably. It will be final if the current upleg proves to be only a retest of prior highs, and not a new rally. [pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
The 1339.50 target was met, and then exceeded through the timing window that tested it. There was room for noise above it to 1346.00. That held after being pierced by 1 tick.

1346.00 was tested between the morning’s bias environment lapsing at 11:30, and the afternoon’s bias environment beginning at 1:20. The timing window was exited at 1343.00, and also exited there. So, not only did the window’s buyers neutralize buying pressure by fulfilling the target, but they also gained no traction for the effort, despite closing at new highs.

None of which is a sell signal, only the basis for a bearish resolution. That has yet to be triggered. Higher highs could be probed while waiting for sellers to gain traction. Or, a new accumulation pattern could target new highs.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Optimism is extreme ahead of Wednesday’s weighty FOMC event (see more discussion in the econ calendar). Buyers didn’t gain traction Tuesday, so a higher close should require gapping up. Probing new highs intraday without having gapped up could react down precipitously. Sliding without delay could be productive, but probably not immediately durable coming one day after a new high close. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.