Trading Plan for 4/29

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
The post-FOMC environment chopped around everywhere, but never got anywhere. From a narrow 1186.00-1188.00 two-hour range preceding the news, the hour following the news bounced between 1192.00 and 1184.25.

The last hour dropped to 1184.25 during the position-squaring window, trapping shorts. When the window ended, a short-squeeze bounced back up to 1191.00. Futures closed at the morning’s 1190.00 bias-up target, above the cash session’s 1188.50 closing equivalent.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Although overnight lows probed Tuesday’s low, the bottom stopped optimistically short of touching 1175.50. The cash session’s mid-morning plunge optimistically stopped short of probing Tuesday’s low. The afternoon’s rally attempts were understandably stymied.

The bounce might try to extend Thursday. But Wednesday’s base isn’t capable of launching a sustainable rally. Higher highs would target 1198.50 and potentially 1204.00 – possibly 1206.00 and even 1211.50 given a decent tailwind.

While there may be no active unfinished business below, sell-offs have been saved by excessive optimism. No further bounce is required. Almost any delay in rallying Thursday would suggest the lows will be probed before the weekend. And no template resolves up at this stage of the pattern if new lows are probed this near the weekend.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
In a fluid news environment, no apparent trending can be relied upon to extend. It’s almost worth planning that trending will reverse, not just that it might. The first trending attempt. Its reaction would be much more credible, whichever the order. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.