Trading Plan for 5/4

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
Extending above 1192.00 Monday suggested that the mid-morning dip had refueled buyers. Their 1200.25 target was met during the noon hour, and it held repeated tests as resistance through the session’s two remaining timing windows. A last hour dive from 1202.00 to 1197.00 only ranged sideways through the session’s last half-hour.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
1200.25 was the afternoon’s highest calculable target. Holding its test through the noon hour robbed buyers of their traction. Optimism prevented a dip during the afternoon’s two timing windows which could have created higher target.

The last hour’s eventual dip stopped at least 2 ticks short of its 1196.00-1196.50 target. So again, instead of refueling buyers like the mid-morning dip, optimism kept the afternoon’s drop too shallow.

Other intraday optimism left unfinished business below at 1195.00, 1191.00, and 1183.00. They’re essentially in-play if 1196.00-1196.50 gives way (its upper-end was touched at the Globex open). An attempt to resume the rally would be signaled above 1200.50, next targeting 1204.00.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
A tenuous base extended Monday’s rally through the noon hour. While the excessive optimism that fueled it is one reason to expect its eventual failure, that same factor may help to fuel it further. Until momentum signals its reversal down, any dip would be vulnerable to recovering prematurely.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.