Trading Plan for 5/9

The market has fallen, and it can’t get up… With the weekend’s illiquidity just hours and then minutes away, the optimistic hesitation is all the more eerie. That’s a lot of misplaced optimism. Either someone knows something (like last Friday’s post-close spike up), or else everyone truly has no idea what’s coming.[pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Friday’s open gapped up 10-13 points from Thursday’s futures close 1335.00. Friday morning was spent ranging above Thursday’s 1344.50 high. Friday’s noon hour ended under the morning’s low.

These are the base criteria for a template being tracked that expects a break under Thursday’s 1325.25 low. Just filling the gap does not fulfill this pattern’s selling pressure. Just filling the gap confirms the pattern is aiming under Thursday’s low.

Not touching Thursday’s low Friday suggests the pattern is now aiming much lower. This hesitation has left something on the table to help Monday attract price down. There was already excessive optimism at Friday’s low, which stopped 2 ticks short of touching Thursday’s 1331.25 cash session close. So, Friday’s late bounce is doomed.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Unless Monday’s open were to recover immediately 13 points above 1347.75, the next lower targets in play is 1319.00. Under 1317.25 would target 1309.00-1311.00. For starters.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.