Trading Plan for 6/11

If the market wanted to trend back down… then it had an excuse Monday. Two, actually. The post-open plunge rejected both bias-up parameters. And the afternoon’s no-bias environment chipped away at its bias-down signal. Gravitating through the close makes selling suspicious, at least without first probing a fresh high, or without trending down sharply to compensate for the delay.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Retracing Monday morning’s 10-point post-open plunge up to 1647.00 expended the most buying pressure allowed without gaining traction for the effort. Yet, there was no consequence other than retesting the plunge’s 1638.25 low to within 3 ticks. No new high was produced, so a lot of selling pressure was left pent-up.

The afternoon’s choppy ranging was entirely centered around its 1641.50 bias-down signal, and even closed there. Not pent-up pressure, but equilibrium, making two trending attempts likely Tuesday morning. Each should be convincing, in opposite directions, and retraced back to 1641.50.

Equilibrium can be escaped by gapping open beyond either end of Monday’s 1638.00-1648.00 range. If maintained through Tuesday’s open, then productive trending would be likely to extend in that direction.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Monday’s ranging at its recovery highs, without reversing down, gives the impression that it knows some positive news is coming. This prevented considering a hold-short setup, as much as the equilibrium close.  [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.