Trading Plan for 6/13

If surging energy prices can’t shake trigger a correction… then count me in for buy-and-hold. Meanwhile, I tend to believe that earnings and economic forecasts must still recognize the higher costs that must be absorbed.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
The market headed fearfully into Friday the 13th, and its full moon. No doubt, events in Iraq were more influential. In either case, the selling has been expended. The question is whether it attracted reinforcements.

Thursday’s 1917.50 low printed just before the Position-squaring window opened at 3:37 ET.  And that low was a retest of a low that had been recovered through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. The two lows are not as relevant as the timing of their recoveries.

Dipping to 1917.50 would have been credible for extending down. So, not extending down, and also recovering back above 1922.50, suggests that sellers may have gotten ahead of themselves. Perhaps it was too much fear over the 13th, the full moon, or Iraq. Regardless, not immediately extending down Friday would allow at least the morning to bounce.

It cuts both ways. Not immediately bouncing Friday would be likely to extend the decline. Not recovering into or out of Thursday’s noon hour already suggests the decline will extend through Monday morning. So, rallying Friday morning would still be vulnerable to selling-off into the close.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
I don’t usually mention the weekend’s Saturday Strategy Session until after Friday’s close. But since we didn’t have one last week, I want to be sure you’re well aware that we’ll be meeting at 9:30am ET, at the link available in the blog’s sidebar. And I’ll be reminding you again after Friday’s close.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.