Trading Plan for 6/15

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
The premise for Monday was that Friday’s last-minute surge would try to extend higher, and the attempt would fail. The morning was all about extending Friday’s last-minute surge, peaking at 1101.75. The afternoon was all about failing, falling to 1084.25. Thanks to gapping up, only the last half of Monday’s last half-hour traded under Friday’s close.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Like Thursday’s buyers, Friday’s buyers did not gain traction. Thursday’s buyers got started early by gapping up, so they were put down at the overnight open. Friday’s buyers didn’t start until the last half-hour, so they had time to run-up prices Monday morning.

Monday’s close in negative territory formally failed to confirm Friday’s breakout attempt. The failure came after probing higher highs – prior highs and higher targets, all were rejected on a closing basis. But no prior low was broken, so nothing has signaled momentum reversing momentum down.

Meanwhile, the gap back up to Monday’s 1095.75 open wants to be filled. And it can be, now that the interim low dipped into the previous session’s range. Testing it from any higher would have been arbitrary. So long as sellers don’t gain traction Monday night, Monday’s highs should be tested Tuesday. And the potential for peaking remains alive.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Option expirations that trend are usually trending in that direction by Wednesday’s close. Reversing back down for this week’s expiration should be obvious by Thursday’s open, or a reversal down won’t be likely. By the same token, a rally could extend into Wednesday’s close and still reverse down into the weekend. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.