Trading Plan for 6/16

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
Wednesday’s late bounce was triggered by 1-minute RSI diverging positively at the 1105.50 low. Peaking at 1115.50, the bounce avoided recovering Tuesday’s high. And closing at 1109.75, it avoided confirming Tuesday’s breakout.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
The deadline for influencing expiration’s trending has passed. Buyers did not gain traction, but neither did sellers. Trending is unlikely, but volatility is not. Thursday’s session should be driven by retesting prior highs and lows, support and resistance.

Gapping down and extending lower through the morning would leave create a new gap, which could trigger a rally into the close, but afternoon rallies should be done this week.

Unless the open maintains a gap down under Monday’s 1101.75 high, sellers will need another intraday bounce to refuel. If buyers were  to gain traction due to some expiration-related anomaly, the follow-through could be very steep and substantial.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Trending into Wednesday afternoon on expiration week tends to extend through expiration. This week’s action suggests either that the upper-end of the range is being tested, or there will be no trending at all. Regardless, beware of unexpected or premature reversals as expiration comes to a head. And beware of Thursday’s disruptive econ calendar. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.